Trump tosses a Hail Mary pass with the Abraham Accords
Summary: as uncertainty escalates over just what Donald Trump is
hoping to achieve with an Iran peace deal his efforts to bring more
Muslim nations into the Abraham Accords fold has already backfired
badly.
Donald Trump the deal-maker in chief played a surprise card last
week-end calling on Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Türkiye, Egypt and
Qatar to join the Abraham Accords, his signature achievement and
arguably the sole foreign policy success from his first term in office.
Unquestionably the 2020 deal that saw the UAE and Bahrain, shortly
followed by Sudan and Morocco and then in 2025 Kazakhstan recognising
the state of Israel has moved the Middle East needle in a direction no
other US president had achieved.
Why just at this moment Trump has pushed six other nations to join is
curious to say the least particularly given that Egypt in 1979 and
Jordan in 1994 had already recognised Israel. As ever with the president
foreign policy is decided in the heat of the moment. Writing on his Truth Social
account in language that suggests the president is increasingly
detached from reality, he called for “mandatory (acceptance) that all of
these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham
Accords.” Doing so will create “a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM,
even during this time of Conflict and War.”
As evidence, the president claimed that those countries already in
the Abraham Accords had benefitted greatly. Now, it can be argued that
the UAE - with its already close ties with Israel before signing on -
and Morocco have seen economic windfalls. Bahrain not so much. And
Sudan, where the UAE is backing the
Rapid Support Forces (who stand accused of genocide in Darfur) in a
vicious civil war, has nothing to show other than massive civilian
casualties and the worst refugee crisis in the world. As for Kazakhstan
it is probably a little early to announce its winnings in the AA
sweepstakes.
In a further surreal flight Trump announced that all six “would be
honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic
of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords.” After all, once the peace
treaty with Iran is done they would be party to a deal not of the
century but one that would “bring true Power, Strength, and Peace to the
Middle East for the first time in 5,000 years.” And bringing in Iran
would mean…well let the president say what it would mean: “Wow, now that
would be something special!”
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Grassroots opposition: public sentiment in Tehran starkly contrasts
with Washington’s “Deal of the Century” aspirations, demonstrating why
regional analysts view the inclusion of Iran in the Accords as entirely
detached from reality.
Lindsey Graham
Trump’s cheerleader in chief in the Senate called the president’s salvo
“simply brilliant.” And the senator informed those whom Trump had
summoned to join that he “expects our Arab allies to embrace
this….Focusing on this task as failure is not an option.”
Setting aside for the moment the arrogance - and the blatant racism -
inherent in the idea that Arabs should without question accept the
diktats emerging from Washington what is Donald Trump playing at?
Maged Mandour in yesterday’s podcast provides a thoughtful answer to that question:
I cannot imagine a scenario where, for example, the Saudis would
sign on, considering how the US and the Israelis dragged them into a war
that they did not want and that is really hurting them. But it
highlights something that we've been seeing over the past few years and
it's not just limited to Trump. It is how the United States is behaving
like a revisionist power. It is effectively working to transform the
region outside of the architecture that it itself had built in a way
that is clearly placing Israeli goals, security and strategy ahead of
the goals of (Arab) allies.
Mandour describes what he calls a revisionist axis that sees the UAE
throwing in its lot - albeit cautiously and privately - with the
Americans and the Israelis. Given the growing tension between Mohammed
bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed the positioning of the Emiratis may in
the coming weeks and months fall more into the public domain. As ever
though MbZ will see which way the winds are blowing. He well understands
that Tehran still holds the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz and the
kinetic message that Iran sent by striking the UAE harder
than it hit Israel when the war was hot has not been lost on him. The
Emiratis understand they remain highly vulnerable should the ceasefire
be ruptured.
Meanwhile the Qataris, the Turks, the Pakistanis and the Saudis have
all roundly rejected the Trump demand. And in doing so the call for a
two-state solution as embodied in the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 has been made that much louder.
Undeterred Benjamin Netanyahu continues his wars. On Tuesday at least 31 people
were killed in strikes in southern Lebanon with the Israelis claiming
to have hit Hezbollah installations, despite reports of many civilians
being killed or injured. And the ethnic cleansing of towns and villages
continues with forced evacuations causing thousands to flee in panic.
Iran, which has made the cessation of IDF attacks in Lebanon a condition
of any peace deal, accused Washington of a “gross violation” of the
ceasefire after US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz which the Pentagon
claimed had struck missile sites and mine laying boats in what it called
defensive strikes.
For Netanyahu - with a broad swathe of Israelis continuing to back
military might over diplomatic negotiations - continuing the wars on
several fronts will keep paying dividends in the run-up to an
anticipated election in the autumn.
The political landscape facing Trump is altogether different. Though
he has displayed contempt for Congress and the Senate, routinely
bypassing them with late night Truth Social orders and launching the
Iran war with not so much as a nod in their direction, Republicans are
facing a mid-term wipeout. More and more are speaking out as petrol prices at the pump remain high heading into the summer driving season. The MAGA movement is fracturing;
Trump is facing pressure from the hawks who want to ‘finish the job’
and the America Firsters who see the president’s leap into the Iran
conflict as a betrayal of his promise to keep the US out of forever
foreign wars.
Trump likes to brag that the American people love him but another
slice or reality he will sidestep are his approval ratings and they are abysmal.
The call to join the Abraham Accords may be an attempt to puff up his
credentials but it has more than a whiff of the desperate about it.
Hoping to embellish a first term foreign policy success by bringing more
Muslim nations into the Accords means little to the average American
and even less to those who voted for Trump in 2024.
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